全部主张 / 《永乐大典》、科学与侵华时间线
第二次工业革命时期概率学快速出现或发展
判定边界
双方证据链未闭合（本轮），不是双方等真，也不是给视频主张背书。
视频原话摘要
概率学
- 领域
- industrial_history
- 涉及对象
- 概率学；第二次工业革命
- 声称年代
- 19世纪后半叶；工业革命时期
- 话语角色
- 作者主张
证据连接
来源记录
SRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F3:SRC-OPENSTAX-INDUSTRYSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F3:SRC-PROB-LEIDENSRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F3:S018SRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F3:S028
待解问题
报告锚点：S05.3 · 研究 lane：F3_YONGLE_SCIENCE_INVASION
双轨条件矩阵
H_VIDEO 与 H_MAIN 独立列出必要条件、正向预测、反证条件、替代机制、形成链和协调伪造规模。
| 模型 | 条件类型 | 条件 | 评估 | 关联证据 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H_VIDEO | necessary_condition | 需 define probability theory versus statistics and date mathematical formation | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | positive_prediction | period history locates core probability formation in 1654-1657 and later developments | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | disconfirmer | field's main formation is earlier than the alleged 1860 trigger | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | alternative_mechanism | Pascal-Fermat-Huygens-Bernoulli and later statistics are independent mechanisms | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | formation_chain | 17th-century probability formation→19th-century statistics/applications | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | not_required_by_claim_logic | not_applicable_by_claim_logic | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | necessary_condition | probability claim needs named dated methods or publications and must distinguish probability from later statistics | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | positive_prediction | Leiden's timeline gives Laplace/Gauss/Poisson and later nineteenth-century advances across 1805-1885 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | disconfirmer | key probability developments predate 1860 and continue after it, disconfirming a single onset after 1860 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | alternative_mechanism | independent chronology, local development and intermediary transmission can explain the scientific record without the proposed model | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | formation_chain | astronomical error/probability problems→Gauss/Laplace→Poisson/Chebyshev/Galton→modern statistics | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | not_required_by_claim_logic | not_applicable_by_claim_logic |
推理桥梁
H_VIDEOotherinput_limited
chronology directly weakens the claimed 1860 causal sequence
H_MAINSTREAMotherinput_limited
multiple independent mathematical lines are an alternative mechanism to the proposed trigger
审计字段与说明
- 终态方法
- dual_track_evidence
- 音频核验
- two_asr_surface_agreement
- 研究备注
- 冻结命题与矩阵终态逐 ID 对齐；非事实 lane 不转写为历史胜负。