全部主张 / 航海、天文与测量
郑和宝船排水量为1500吨
判定边界
双方证据链未闭合（本轮），不是双方等真，也不是给视频主张背书。
视频原话摘要
宝船排水量1500吨
- 领域
- maritime_history
- 涉及对象
- 郑和宝船
- 声称年代
- 明代；永乐年间
- 话语角色
- 作者主张
证据连接
来源记录
SRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-AAAS-ZHENGSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-AAS-SIZESRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-CAMBRIDGE-MONSOONSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-CHURCH-PLAUSIBILITYSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-NANJING-YARDSRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-01SRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-02SRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-03
待解问题
报告锚点：S05.5 · 研究 lane：F5_MARITIME_ASTRO
双轨条件矩阵
H_VIDEO 与 H_MAIN 独立列出必要条件、正向预测、反证条件、替代机制、形成链和协调伪造规模。
| 模型 | 条件类型 | 条件 | 评估 | 关联证据 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H_VIDEO | necessary_condition | 1500吨须先定义为排水量或载重；郑和宝船须与该数字指向同一对象；明代计量换算须可追溯 | mixed | |
| H_VIDEO | positive_prediction | 同期文字或考古/工程记录给出可复核吨位或容量换算；独立尺寸与承载模型相容 | mixed | |
| H_VIDEO | disconfirmer | 1500吨只来自后出换算或与传统尺寸混用；记录只给模糊单位或更小估计 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | alternative_mechanism | 1500 liao容量而非公吨；不同船型被统称宝船；后世叙事放大 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | formation_chain | ASR数字→单位语义→尺寸/容量记录→物理模型 | mixed | |
| H_VIDEO | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | none;需要可审计历史对象或记录，不预设制造或协调 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | necessary_condition | the tonnage unit and translation must be fixed; the number must attach to a named treasure-ship class; an object, record or reproducible displacement estimate must exist; date and source custody must be explicit | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | positive_prediction | a dated primary or specialist calculation should converge on about 1500 tons and match hull dimensions, cargo and crew evidence | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | disconfirmer | a competing unit reading, a smaller object-level estimate, or unresolved hull-strength/capacity mismatch would disconfirm the exact number | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | alternative_mechanism | 200-foot wooden-ship estimate; 400-foot literary estimate; tonnage may mean burden/capacity rather than displacement; multiple vessel classes | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | formation_chain | FC-F5-C18 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | not_required_by_claim_logic | not_applicable_by_claim_logic |
推理桥梁
H_VIDEOothermixed
公吨或排水量←里数换算；单一传统数字→全体宝船
H_MAINSTREAMotherinput_limited
reported number→unit conversion→ship dimensions→displacement/capacity→same fleet
审计字段与说明
- 终态方法
- dual_track_evidence
- 音频核验
- two_asr_surface_agreement
- 研究备注
- 冻结命题与矩阵终态逐 ID 对齐；非事实 lane 不转写为历史胜负。