全部主张 / 航海、天文与测量
1500吨的木船不可能靠几百名水手用小木桨环游世界
判定边界
双方证据链未闭合（本轮），不是双方等真，也不是给视频主张背书。
视频原话摘要
靠几百个水手拿着小木桨花1500吨的船环游世界
- 领域
- maritime_physics
- 涉及对象
- 郑和宝船；水手；木桨
- 声称年代
- 明代；永乐年间
- 话语角色
- 作者主张
双轨条件矩阵
H_VIDEO 与 H_MAIN 独立列出必要条件、正向预测、反证条件、替代机制、形成链和协调伪造规模。
| 模型 | 条件类型 | 条件 | 评估 | 关联证据 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H_VIDEO | necessary_condition | 须把1500吨、木船、几百名水手、小木桨、环游世界同时作为同一反事实；推进方式须限定为小桨而非帆/季风 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | positive_prediction | 可复现实验或工程模型显示仅靠指定桨具和人力达到航程/吨位；或来源给出同类实例 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | disconfirmer | “几百小桨”是稻草人条件；郑和航行使用风帆/季风；没有量化桨功率、阻力、补给模型 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | alternative_mechanism | 风帆和季风承担主推进；桨用于操纵/港内；吨位或人数含义不同 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | formation_chain | 视频条件句→推进约束→功率/航程→历史航线 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | none;只做条件物理测试，不要求制造或协调 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | necessary_condition | the 1500-ton value, wooden hull, “small oar” geometry, crew count, propulsion mode, route and meaning of “impossible” must be specified; wind, sail, current and resupply must be separated from rowing-only power | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | positive_prediction | a quantified energy/range model or experimental reconstruction should show the stated configuration cannot sustain the specified voyage, or show a feasible alternative configuration | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | disconfirmer | large-size debate and sail/oar evidence may reject the stated setup without proving no global voyage; crew and tonnage may be misread; “circumnavigate” may be rhetorical | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | alternative_mechanism | sail-driven wooden vessel; multiple vessel classes; smaller displacement; coastal relay/resupply; oars for manoeuvre only | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | formation_chain | FC-F5-C05 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | not_required_by_claim_logic | not_applicable_by_claim_logic |
推理桥梁
H_VIDEOotherinput_limited
条件物理不可能→历史船必非木；风帆反例→结论改写
H_MAINSTREAMotherinput_limited
tonnage/hull→propulsion mode→crew/energy→range/route→voyage feasibility
审计字段与说明
- 终态方法
- dual_track_evidence
- 音频核验
- two_asr_surface_agreement
- 研究备注
- 冻结命题与矩阵终态逐 ID 对齐；非事实 lane 不转写为历史胜负。