全部主张 / 航海、天文与测量
明朝中期刘大夏藏起了郑和宝船图纸
判定边界
双方证据链未闭合（本轮），不是双方等真，也不是给视频主张背书。
视频原话摘要
明朝中期刘大夏把图纸藏起来了
- 领域
- shipbuilding_history
- 涉及对象
- 刘大夏；宝船图纸
- 声称年代
- 明朝中期
- 话语角色
- 作者主张
证据连接
来源记录
SRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-CHURCH-PLAUSIBILITYSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-CNG-LIUSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-ICM-LIUSRCREF:R005-HMAIN-F5:SRC-F5-MING-SHILU-CTEXTSRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-06SRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-07SRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-08SRCREF:R005-HVIDEO-F5:S-F5-09
待解问题
报告锚点：S05.5 · 研究 lane：F5_MARITIME_ASTRO
双轨条件矩阵
H_VIDEO 与 H_MAIN 独立列出必要条件、正向预测、反证条件、替代机制、形成链和协调伪造规模。
| 模型 | 条件类型 | 条件 | 评估 | 关联证据 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H_VIDEO | necessary_condition | 须有可定位文本指称刘大夏并明确藏起/销毁郑和图纸或航海档案；文本日期和传承须可审计 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | positive_prediction | 明代记录、墓志/实录或早期史料直接连结人物、对象和行动 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | disconfirmer | 学术来源称所藏的是征安南档案而非郑和档案；故事在后出叙事中转化 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | alternative_mechanism | 刘大夏隐藏其他档案；后世把“档案失踪”改写成宝船图纸 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | formation_chain | 人物→文件对象→行动→年代→后世版本 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | none;不假设史料伪造 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | necessary_condition | an early dated attestation must name Liu Daxia, identify the documents as treasure-ship plans, distinguish hiding from burning, and establish chain of custody | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | positive_prediction | early primary or near-primary record should state the action and document identity with wording stable across independent witnesses | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | disconfirmer | critical source comparison showing the documents may have been Annam military files, or that later accounts changed hiding to burning, undermines the precise claim | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | alternative_mechanism | hidden route records; Annam military ledgers; lost or destroyed voyage files; later conflation with plans | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | formation_chain | FC-F5-C07 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | not_required_by_claim_logic | not_applicable_by_claim_logic |
推理桥梁
H_VIDEOotherinput_limited
档案暂藏→宝船图纸销毁
H_MAINSTREAMotherinput_limited
Liu office tenure→document type→hide/burn action→later historiography
审计字段与说明
- 终态方法
- dual_track_evidence
- 音频核验
- two_asr_surface_agreement
- 研究备注
- 冻结命题与矩阵终态逐 ID 对齐；非事实 lane 不转写为历史胜负。