全部主张 / 航海、天文与测量
永乐帝在收到消息后立即下令免除朝贺
判定边界
双方证据链未闭合（本轮），不是双方等真，也不是给视频主张背书。
视频原话摘要
永乐地立刻下令免潮贺
- 领域
- political_history
- 涉及对象
- 永乐帝；朝贺
- 声称年代
- 永乐十二年当天
- 话语角色
- 作者主张
双轨条件矩阵
H_VIDEO 与 H_MAIN 独立列出必要条件、正向预测、反证条件、替代机制、形成链和协调伪造规模。
| 模型 | 条件类型 | 条件 | 评估 | 关联证据 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H_VIDEO | necessary_condition | 须有明确的永乐帝/日期/消息来源/免朝贺命令记录；“立即”须有时间语义 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | positive_prediction | 实录、诏令、邸报或其他可定位记录把收到消息和免朝贺连接起来 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | disconfirmer | ASR词形可能错误；一般礼制记录不能代替此命令 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | alternative_mechanism | 后世礼仪解释；不同事件的免朝贺命令；转录错误 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | formation_chain | 消息收件→皇帝知悉→命令→执行记录 | input_limited | |
| H_VIDEO | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | requires_primary_court_record;不得用类比命令填空 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | necessary_condition | the message receipt, emperor, date, court ritual and causal link must all be in a primary or near-primary record; “立即” needs a defined interval; eclipse-related exemptions must be distinguished from other causes | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | positive_prediction | a Ming court entry should explicitly link the report to Yongle Emperor's same-day 朝贺 exemption | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | disconfirmer | ordinary eclipse ritual, another event, a different year or silence in the annal would undermine the full causal claim; silence is bounded, not disproof | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | alternative_mechanism | ritual exemption independently triggered by local calendar; later conflation of entries; report received later | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | formation_chain | FC-F5-C16 | input_limited | |
| H_MAINSTREAM | fabrication_or_coordination_scope | not_required_by_claim_logic | not_applicable_by_claim_logic |
推理桥梁
H_VIDEOotherinput_limited
有天象消息→立即免朝贺
H_MAINSTREAMotherinput_limited
foreign observation→message receipt→imperial decision→same-day ritual order
审计字段与说明
- 终态方法
- dual_track_evidence
- 音频核验
- asr_ambiguity_retained
- 研究备注
- 冻结命题与矩阵终态逐 ID 对齐；非事实 lane 不转写为历史胜负。