神话写实要跨过哪些门槛

文本/记录基线

The article identifies the peau kula report, Gifford-recorded Maui variants, named places and the study's later local interviews, keeping historical recording and present fieldwork temporally distinct.

locator：Frontiers PDF pp.1–2, introduction；Frontiers PDF pp.6–7, Gifford 1923 versions and local Haveluliku accounts

依赖限制：All records and field measurements are integrated by one 2021 study; this is one case family, not multiple replications.

复现限制：The underlying Morton and Gifford works were not separately rescored here.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

母题与语境

The body presents more than a detached phrase: red-wave terminology, Maui-rock narratives, local place associations, variant meanings, and the warning that rooster imagery is widespread and the tsunami reading tenuous.

locator：Frontiers PDF p.2, peau kula context；Frontiers PDF pp.6–7, Maui-rock and rooster variants

依赖限制：Motif distribution is assessed within the article's selected Tongan materials.

复现限制：No complete catalogue of all Tongan variants is supplied.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

最小可检验现实核

The bounded hypothesis fixes Tongatapu, a large marine inundation, a mid-fifteenth-century window, sediment/boulder/radiocarbon predictions, and explicit source alternatives that could have defeated it.

locator：Frontiers PDF pp.2–3, stated aim to corroborate or deny；Frontiers PDF pp.9–10, mid-fifteenth-century event and source tests

依赖限制：The research was prompted by the legend, so later discrimination must handle selection dependence.

复现限制：The frozen case evaluates the bounded tsunami kernel, not kingdom destruction or a unique volcanic source.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

独立收敛

Physical observations with error mechanisms distinct from narrative transmission—marine deposits, high-elevation boulders, sedimentary signatures and dated material—converge on a large local fifteenth-century tsunami. They do not establish the narrative's exact origin or every attached interpretation.

locator：Frontiers PDF pp.5–9, stratigraphy, boulders, sedimentology and radiocarbon；Frontiers PDF p.12, bounded conclusion

依赖限制：The natural proxies are distinct measurements but are analysed by one team in DEP-TONGA-RED-WAVE-FIELD; count one case family.

复现限制：No independent replication paper of the local field result is included in this case.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

区分力

The study tests several physical sources and rejects some broader interpretations, but it does not document a preregistered decision rule, a frozen negative-case denominator, or blind application of the same rule before observing this case.

locator：Frontiers PDF pp.9–11, competing source models；Frontiers PDF pp.11–12, rejected mass-grave claim and speculative relocation link

缺失：A preregistered discriminant with explicit thresholds and negative controls evaluated without outcome-aware revision.

依赖限制：Selection, field design and interpretation remain in one study family.

复现限制：Another assessor could disagree about whether the source-model tests alone satisfy gate 4; the freeze's preregistration clause resolves that ambiguity downward.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

传承连续性

Named recorded variants exist, but the body does not establish a testable lineage from the fifteenth-century event through recorder bias, breaks, updates and the modern corpus.

locator：Frontiers PDF pp.2 and 6–7, record and variant references

缺失：A dated variant genealogy and explicit transmission-break/update model from event window to recorded forms.

依赖限制：The field-event evidence cannot substitute for transmission evidence.

复现限制：Historical recording dates are not event dates.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

字面强主张

The body itself rejects or qualifies key literal extensions: the rooster metaphor is non-unique, the tsunami source is unresolved, kingdom destruction is unlikely, and relocation is speculative.

locator：Frontiers PDF p.7, tsunami reading described as tenuous；Frontiers PDF pp.11–12, kingdom-destruction and relocation limits

依赖限制：A bounded event kernel cannot be extrapolated into literal validation of all narrative detail.

复现限制：Failure concerns the strong claim, not the occurrence of a local tsunami.

SRC-LAVIGNE-ETAL-2021

文本/记录基线

The paper states that the corpus is derived from written sources and provides named narratives, places, collectors/publications and stable section-level context.

locator：NHESS pp.1930–1931, written-source method；NHESS pp.1933–1935, named pūrākau and record citations

依赖限制：The synthesis is one King/Goff family even though it cites multiple narrative and natural-history records.

复现限制：The original Māori-language and community-held versions are not all reproduced.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

母题与语境

The body distinguishes oral history from oral tradition, maps regional clusters, records multiple variants and functions, and warns about stylisation, synthetic traditions and lost context.

locator：NHESS pp.1933–1935, Cook Strait and southern South Island clusters；NHESS p.1938, interpretation and community-context limits

依赖限制：Coverage reflects available publications and uneven ethnographic collection.

复现限制：The authors acknowledge a paucity of narratives in some evidence-rich regions.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

最小可检验现实核

The case narrows to named coastal clusters, candidate thirteenth-to-fifteenth-century events, geographic spread and expected geological/archaeological traces, while allowing more than one event or source.

locator：NHESS pp.1933–1934, place-specific narrative claims；NHESS pp.1936–1937, dated Cook Strait/Otago comparisons

依赖限制：The question tests bounded regional kernels, not a single event behind every narrative.

复现限制：Genealogical dates are explicitly tentative.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

独立收敛

Written narrative clusters and separately generated geological, geomorphological and archaeological records overlap at Cook Strait and Otago in bounded time/place windows, while discordant regions and source uncertainty remain visible.

locator：NHESS pp.1935–1937, palaeotsunami validity records and archaeology；NHESS p.1938, regional agreement and caveats

依赖限制：Goff participates in the synthesis and related palaeotsunami literature, so this is convergence of source types inside one dependency family, not an independent author replication.

复现限制：Event-source attribution remains disputed and some sites have lower validity ratings.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

区分力

The paper uses a validity index, presents absences and alternative processes, and does not force one source, but it does not show that narrative-to-event predictions and the cross-case decision rule were preregistered and applied blind.

locator：NHESS pp.1935–1937, validity index and competing sources；NHESS p.1938, non-tsunami alternatives and ground-truthing need

缺失：A frozen pre-outcome rule linking narrative features to the VI evidence, plus blind positive/negative/ambiguous evaluation.

依赖限制：The authors contribute to both comparison and parts of the natural-hazard literature.

复现限制：The boundary between exploratory concordance and confirmatory discrimination is not mechanically fixed.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

传承连续性

Variants and recorder/context risks are described, but a lineage with testable breaks, updates and continuous time depth from candidate events to written records is not established.

locator：NHESS pp.1930 and 1938, transmission/stylisation and continuity cautions

缺失：Case-specific transmission genealogies and break/update evidence across the proposed centuries.

依赖限制：Natural-event dating cannot date the narrative chain.

复现限制：Published narrative scarcity may reflect collection history rather than past absence.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

字面强主张

The source explicitly leaves event number, source and some process assignments unresolved and treats the exercise as preliminary; it cannot independently support every narrative detail as a literal event record.

locator：NHESS pp.1936–1938, uncertain event count/source and non-tsunami alternatives

依赖限制：Regional concordance is not exhaustive correspondence.

复现限制：Failure is limited to a literal strong claim.

SRC-KING-GOFF-2010

文本/记录基线

The paper supplies fuller versions, named publications/recorders and dates, separates unknown original informants from later recorders, and retains additional versions rather than treating one excerpt as the original.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.13–15, Smith/Mountford/Hercus/Edwardes versions；Accepted manuscript pp.20–22, version comparison

依赖限制：All re-analysis is integrated in one Narungga/non-Narungga collaborative paper.

复现限制：The Aboriginal sources for two early published narratives remain unknown and are marked as such.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

母题与语境

The source treats Narungga narratives as a knowledge system, compares multiple scales and versions, records sacred/place/social meanings, and preserves difference and silence instead of manufacturing a pristine form.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.13–16, macro/meso/micro narratives and variants；Accepted manuscript pp.20–22, silences, dynamism and multiple meanings

依赖限制：The corpus remains regionally and publication bounded.

复现限制：Some community-held context is necessarily not reducible to the published article.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

最小可检验现实核

The bounded claim identifies local features, explicit marine-transgression windows, map-derived predictions and underwater/terrestrial archaeological targets; it does not require all variants to describe one event.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.7–10, bathymetric method and anti-confirmation method；Accepted manuscript pp.18–23, dated transgression phases and archaeological targets

依赖限制：The hypotheses arise within an exploratory regional dialogue, not a preregistered trial.

复现限制：The paper itself says a full local cultural chronology is lacking.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

独立收敛

Historically recorded narrative materials and independently produced bathymetric/topographic data converge on some local marine phases and formations. The conclusion is deliberately partial: other versions are silent and archaeological dating is incomplete.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.7–10, Geoscience Australia bathymetry and field survey；Accepted manuscript pp.18–23, bounded concordance and mismatches

依赖限制：The data types have distinct measurement histories but their selection and interpretation are synthesized in DEP-YORKE-NARUNGGA-REGIONAL-REVIEW.

复现限制：Convergence supports a bounded local marine-history kernel, not a unique narrative-event mapping.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

区分力

This case strongly exposes cherry-picking and competing readings, but the article does not provide a preregistered decision rule or demonstrate blind application of one frozen classifier across positive, negative and ambiguous cases.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.7–8, explicit avoidance of confirmation-only selection；Accepted manuscript pp.20–24, drought/tidal alternatives, silent variants and open archaeological questions

缺失：Pre-outcome thresholds for what correspondence would discriminate transgression memory from generic landscape creation, drought, tide or later interpretation.

依赖限制：Collaborative interpretation is a strength for context but does not itself create confirmatory independence.

复现限制：Assessors may agree on the caution while differing on which local correspondences are diagnostic.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

传承连续性

The article improves the visible version genealogy and identifies recorder/source gaps, but it lacks a continuous, testable chain over the proposed deep-time interval.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.13–16, recorder/variant chain；Accepted manuscript pp.20–24, cultural chronology gap and dynamic meanings

缺失：A dated transmission pedigree across breaks and updates, plus a complete regional cultural chronology.

依赖限制：Version history since collection cannot bridge the earlier millennia by itself.

复现限制：Silence can reflect version diversity, collection history or true absence.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

字面强主张

The full corpus directly defeats a single pristine-version or blanket-correspondence reading: not all variants mention inundation and narratives carry meanings at different periods and scales.

locator：Accepted manuscript pp.20–24, no pristine version, differences, silences and dynamism

依赖限制：Partial correspondence cannot validate every version or detail.

复现限制：Failure of literal totalization coexists with a met bounded kernel at gate 3.

SRC-ROBERTS-ETAL-2020

文本/记录基线

The paper separates 1950s reports, 1998–2011 fieldwork, named elders, later art programs and the 1947 scientific identification, with stable quotations and locators.

locator：Preprint pp.16–20, named collectors, dates and Wolfe Creek accounts；Preprint pp.22–23, source-history synthesis

依赖限制：All records are assessed through one Hamacher/Goldsmith case synthesis.

复现限制：Some underlying interviews and exhibition materials were not independently reopened.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

母题与语境

The source documents multiple incompatible motifs, art/community contexts, generic landscape-creation patterns, and Western-science influence instead of isolating a single star phrase.

locator：Preprint pp.16–20, serpent, yam, star and art variants；Preprint pp.1–2, seven competing origin mechanisms

依赖限制：Variant selection remains bounded to the paper's documented corpus.

复现限制：The absence of an early record is not treated as proof that no tradition existed.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

最小可检验现实核

The minimal comparison is testable: an ancient witnessed-impact account predicts a demonstrable pre-contact/pre-scientific source chain, whereas a later update predicts post-investigation emergence, testimony of Western influence and guided imagery.

locator：Preprint pp.1–2, seven explicit explanations；Preprint pp.16–20, pre/post-1947 provenance predictions

依赖限制：The hypothesis is about source history, not whether contemporary traditions are culturally valuable.

复现限制：A claimed grandfather's-grandfather chain supplies contrary evidence but is not independently dated.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

独立收敛

The strong ancient witnessed-impact hypothesis does not receive independent convergence. Instead, multiple provenance observations point toward later scientific influence, while the one asserted pre-contact lineage remains undated and conflicting.

locator：Preprint pp.16–20, early no-origin report, white-man statement and artist direction；Preprint pp.22–23, inability to demonstrate pre-colonial impact-origin traditions

依赖限制：The contrary records are distinct observations but remain compiled in one dependency family.

复现限制：This failure does not prove that every Wolfe Creek story is recent; it rejects the stronger witnessed-impact inference on this record.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

区分力

The paper unusually includes competing explanations, absences and contradictions, but it does not show preregistration or blind application of a frozen discriminant; gate 3 already stops the contiguous level.

locator：Preprint pp.1–2, seven alternatives；Preprint pp.20–23, negative controls and contradictory Wolfe Creek testimony

缺失：A preregistered source-provenance rule applied blind to a fixed crater corpus.

依赖限制：The same authors select and interpret the case corpus.

复现限制：A different assessor might call this exploratory discrimination; the freeze requires more for met.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

传承连续性

The record contains an explicit update mechanism and breaks in the alleged ancient chain; it cannot establish continuous transmission of an eyewitness impact account.

locator：Preprint pp.16–20, post-1947 collection and documented Western influence；Preprint pp.22–23, unresolved pre-colonial continuity

依赖限制：Contemporary significance is separate from historical continuity.

复现限制：Failure applies to the ancient witnessed-impact lineage, not to continuity of all local traditions.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

字面强主张

Contradictory origins and documented scientific influence preclude the exclusionary evidence needed to treat the star-impact story as a literal eyewitness record.

locator：Preprint pp.22–23, explicit inability to demonstrate pre-colonial impact-origin tradition

依赖限制：Crater reality does not validate narrative provenance.

复现限制：A true impact crater is not itself an independent record of who witnessed it.

SRC-HAMACHER-GOLDSMITH-2013

文本/记录基线

The paper identifies the 21 location collections and their record references and distinguishes later compilers from the purported earlier traditions; it also discloses when original identities are lost.

locator：Printed journal pp.13–35, 21 source sections；Printed journal p.43, acknowledgement of lost original owners

依赖限制：Three lane aliases are byte-identical copies of one work and count once.

复现限制：Record quality is heterogeneous across the 21 sections.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

母题与语境

The body presents local geographic contexts, more than one version in some locations, a coast-wide motif distribution and proposed social/transmission functions rather than relying on one excerpt.

locator：Printed journal pp.13–35, local contexts and variants；Printed journal pp.36–39, corpus distribution and comparison

依赖限制：The denominator and linguistic homology of the selected motif corpus are not independently established; that limits later discrimination but does not erase the contextual material present.

复现限制：Genre/function coverage is uneven between locations.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

最小可检验现实核

The paper specifies locations, narrative-implied minimum depths, a postglacial time window and comparison against the Lewis sea-level envelope. The minimum claim can be falsified by incompatible geography, depths or dates.

locator：Printed journal pp.11–12, minimum-depth method；Printed journal pp.36–38, depth-to-sea-level comparison

依赖限制：The authors select stories and derive the tested depths; this is not preregistered confirmatory evidence.

复现限制：Narrative geography and reconstructed past bathymetry carry acknowledged uncertainty.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

独立收敛

The Lewis comparator is external natural data, but story selection, geographic interpretation, bathymetric conversion and the 21-location synthesis form one coupled dependency chain. The paper itself says modern bathymetry may be unreliable and read-back cannot be excluded.

locator：Printed journal pp.36–38, modern-bathymetry and read-back limits；Printed journal pp.41–42, cannot-prove boundary

缺失：Case-level natural/archaeological corroboration with selection and interpretation errors independent of the Nunn/Reid–Lewis chain.

依赖限制：The 21 locations are not 21 independent confirmations; all aliases and locations count as DEP-NUNN-REID-21-LEWIS.

复现限制：The exact depth assigned to imprecise narrative geography is judgment-sensitive.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

区分力

The design selects known coastal-inundation stories, excludes inadequately known candidates, and treats the absence of falling-sea stories as confirmatory without a frozen denominator or blind negative-case rule. It therefore triggers the cherry-picking/after-the-fact failure condition.

locator：Printed journal p.14, consistency and uniformity used as criteria；Printed journal pp.36–38, excluded inadequately known stories and no falling-sea countercorpus

依赖限制：All selection and interpretation decisions are internal to the anchor synthesis.

复现限制：A complete search denominator was not supplied.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

传承连续性

The article proposes culturally plausible fidelity mechanisms but supplies no case-by-case variant genealogy spanning the asserted millennia and acknowledges memory loss and vulnerable link-breaking.

locator：Printed journal pp.39–42, proposed transmission mechanisms and chance link-breaking

缺失：Testable lineage, breaks, updates and recorder-bias history for each claimed deep-time chain.

依赖限制：A general cultural mechanism cannot independently date each narrative.

复现限制：The oldest event-compatible date is not the age of the recorded story.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

字面强主张

The source expressly disclaims proof, while read-back, bathymetry and transmission remain unresolved; it cannot supply exclusionary support for literal detail across the corpus.

locator：Printed journal p.41, explicit statement that recall and antiquity can never be proven；Printed journal p.42, conditional conclusion

依赖限制：A shared thematic pattern does not independently validate each narrative detail.

复现限制：Failure of the strong claim does not erase the testable level-2 hypothesis.

SRC-NUNN-REID-2016

文本/记录基线

The review separates the 1890 missionary record, later missionary/anthropological/linguistic versions, community narratives and modern scientific studies with stable references and dates.

locator：Springer PDF pp.3–4, Michelsen 1890 and subsequent records；Springer PDF p.10, source-list statement

依赖限制：The review and all underlying lines are represented as one frozen Kuwae/Tombuk family for scoring.

复现限制：Not every unpublished historical item is reproduced in full.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023

母题与语境

The paper supplies regional distribution, multiple narratives, social/legal functions, named lineages and survivor/resettlement motifs rather than reducing the corpus to one eruption phrase.

locator：Springer PDF pp.3–4, chiefly-title, land-right and survivor narratives；Springer PDF pp.4–5, multiple lineage and material-memory forms

依赖限制：Community monitoring of accuracy is evidence about social function, not proof of fifteenth-century continuity.

复现限制：The review summarizes rather than exhaustively transcribes every version.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023

最小可检验现实核

The minimum claim fixes a major eruption near Epi/Tongoa, a mid-fifteenth-century window and predicted caldera, tephra, settlement interruption and recolonisation traces, while leaving precise date, magnitude and global attribution open.

locator：Springer PDF pp.3–5, bounded Tombuk event and field targets；Springer PDF pp.9–10, explicit confidence questions and research targets

依赖限制：Discovery targets were substantially guided by oral histories, which matters at gate 3.

复现限制：Current proximal dates have poor resolution.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023

独立收敛

Archaeological and geological material supports a major local eruption, but oral histories guided discovery and interpretation; dating, tephra attribution and resettlement chronology remain weak. The review itself says independent disciplinary lines are still needed to avoid circular confirmation.

locator：Springer PDF pp.3–7, oral-history-guided archaeology；Springer PDF pp.9–10, circular-confirmation warning and weak links

缺失：Independently selected and chemically/dating-resolved proximal evidence tied to a predeclared window, with interpretation separated from the oral-history-guided discovery chain.

依赖限制：Historical, archaeological and geological evidence are all retained within DEP-KUWAE-TOMBUK because their selection paths are coupled.

复现限制：Physical event existence is stronger than the proposed exact narrative/date/global correlation.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023

区分力

The review actively exposes false correlations and negative evidence, but it is a retrospective critical synthesis rather than a preregistered blind test with fixed thresholds across case types.

locator：Springer PDF pp.6–10, unreliable dates, alternative tephra sources and rejected ice-core linkage；Springer PDF p.10, future independent-protocol requirement

缺失：A frozen discrimination protocol for local eruption, exact date, resettlement and distal-sulphate claims applied to held-out cases.

依赖限制：Critical self-correction does not by itself establish confirmatory independence.

复现限制：Different claim scopes would yield different apparent success unless fixed before scoring.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023

传承连续性

The modern record and social monitoring are unusually strong, but the chain from the fifteenth-century event to first nineteenth-century documentation still lacks a fully testable genealogy with breaks, updates and recorder effects.

locator：Springer PDF pp.3–5, continuous documentation since 1890s and title-lineage function；Springer PDF pp.6–10, poorly defined post-eruption chronology

缺失：A dated transmission lineage bridging the event-to-1890 gap and resolving post-eruption settlement timing.

依赖限制：Current title succession cannot automatically date every attached narrative detail.

复现限制：Genealogical estimates historically produced conflicting dates.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023

字面强主张

The review leaves exact chronology, magnitude, survival geography and global sulphate attribution unresolved and documents earlier circular confirmation; literal validation of all narrative detail is excluded.

locator：Springer PDF pp.9–10, unresolved date, magnitude, survival and global attribution

依赖限制：A real major eruption does not validate every social, genealogical or supernatural detail.

复现限制：Failure concerns the maximal claim, not the bounded event kernel.

SRC-BALLARD-ETAL-2023